Daddy Long Legs 

 

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

Jockey: Colm O’Donoghue

ML Odds: 30-1

Daddy Long Legs has run three of his four races overseas but his lone American start came at Churchill Downs last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished 13th.  He won the UAE Derby in his last start at the end of March

 Optimizer 

 

Jockey: Jon Court

Trainer:  D. Wayne Lukas

ML Odds: 50-1

Lukas will be looking for his fifth derby victory while Court will be seeking his first.  The odds to not appear to be in their favor though as Optimizer finished a distant ninth in the Arkansas Derby and has not won a race since breaking his maiden in his first start last summer at Saratoga.

Take Charge Indy 

 

Jockey: Calvin Borel

Trainer: Patrick Byrne

ML Odds: 15-1

Any horse with Calvin Borel on his back is a legit contender in the Derby.  Borel has won three of the last five Derbys and the other 19 jockeys better be looking over their left shoulder in the stretch for the wire to wire Florida Derby winner.

 Union Rags 

 

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Trainer:  Michael Matz

ML Odds: 9-2

The second favorite has won four of his six starts and his finished second and third to Derby foes Take Charge Indy and Hansen respectively.  Union Rags will be piloted by Keeneland’s top rider, Julien Leparoux, who is seeking his first Derby win while trainer Michael Matz is looking for his second (Barbaro).

 Dullahan 

 

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Trainer: Dale Romans

ML Odds: 8-1

The Bluegrass Stakes winner is guided by three time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux and is trained by Louisville native Dale Romans.  Dullahan has raced three times at Churchill Downs, most recently finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but has never place higher than third over the course.  Both of his career wins came over the Polytrack at Keeneland.

 Bodemeister 

 

Jockey: Mike Smith

Trainer:  Bob Baffert

ML Odds: 4-1

The morning line favorite has won two out of his four career starts and has never finished worse than second.  Smith will be seeking his second Derby victory (Giacomo) while Baffert will be seeking his third but his first in a decade.  Bodemeister won the Arkansas Derby by nearly 10 lengths and appears to be the one to beat.

 Rousing Sermon 

 

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Trainer:  Jerry Hollendorfer

ML Odds: 50-1

The long shot California bred finished third by two lengths in the Louisiana Derby, his most recent start.

 Creative Cause 

 

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Trainer:  Mike Harrington

ML Odds: 12-1

The son of Grade 1 winner Giant’s Causeway finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his lone start under the twin spires and was beaten by a nose by Derby foe I’ll Have Another last month in the Santa Anita Derby.

 Trinniberg 

 

Jockey: Willie Martinez

Trainer: Bisnath Parboo

ML Odds: 50-1

The long shot has put together back to back Grade 3 victories but finished a distant seventh in his lone start at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint last fall.

 Daddy Nose Best 

 

Jockey: Garrett Gomez

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

ML Odds: 15-1

Both Asmussen and Gomez are still seeking their first Derby victory and hope the winner of two straight Grade 3 races can pull the upset.  Daddy Nose Best has raced twice over the Churchill Downs dirt and finished second and seventh respectively.

 Alpha 

 

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

ML Odds: 15-1

The Wood Memorial runner up has won three of his six starts but finished 11th  in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall, his lone start under the spires.

 Prospective 

 

Jockey: Luis Contreras

Trainer: Mark Casse

ML Odds: 30-1

The Tampa Bay Derby winner looks to rebound from a sixth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes.  His lone start at Churchill Downs came in a last place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall.

 Went The Day Well 

 

Jockey: John Velazquez

Trainer: Graham Motion

ML Odds: 20-1

John Velazquez looks to make it two in a row aboard the winner of two straight.   Went The Day Well broke his maiden in the first week of March and won the Spiral Stakes at Turfway three weeks later in his most recent start.

 Hansen

 

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Trainer: Mike Maker

ML Odds: 10-1

The Blue Grass Stakes runner up looks to get back to his winning ways and give Dominguez and Maker their first Derby Victories.  Hansen has won four of his six starts including his lone start at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall.

 Gemologist 

 

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

ML Odds: 6-1

The third favorite looks to give Pletcher and White Star Farm their second Derby Victory (Super Saver).  Gemologist is a perfect  5-for-5 in his career starts.  He won the Wood Memorial in his last start by beating Derby foe Alpha by a neck and has won both of his starts at Churchill Downs, including the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall.

 El Padrino 

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

ML Odds: 20-1

Former Churchill Downs leading rider Bejarano is still looking for his first Derby win and hopes to guide the Florida Derby fourth place finisher to his third win in four starts.

 

 Done Talking 

 

Jockey: Sheldon Russell

Trainer: Hamilton Smith

ML Odds: 50-1

Done Talking closed from near the back of the pack to win a very slow Illinois Derby but may be the weakest horse in the field.

 Sabercat

 

Jockey: Corey Nakatani

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

ML Odds: 30-1

The show horse in the Arkansas Derby has raced at Churchill Downs twice finishing fourth and third respectively.

 I’ll Have Another 

 

Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Trainer: Doug O’Neill

ML Odds: 12-1

The Santa Anita Derby winner looks to win his third race in as many starts in his Churchill Downs debut

 Liaison 

Jockey: Martin Garcia

Trainer: Bob Baffert

ML Odds: 50-1

The long shot placed sixth in the Santa Anita Derby and will have to come from the far outside post to get his first win of the year.

 

My Picks 

The Derby is the hardest race in the sport to handicap and is wide open as usual so I tried to narrow it down to my top three.

Bodemeister: I think the Arkansas Derby is the best Kentucky Derby prep race and his dominating performance is reason enough for me to put him on top.  I think he is the best horse in the field and can jump out on top and go wire to wire with Derby winner Mike Smith aboard.

Union Rags: Probably is the second best horse in the field and just ran out of racetrack in a third place finish in the Florida Derby.  Julien Leparoux has won eight of his twenty-two starts in the first three days of the spring meet.  I could see Union Rags charging late, especially if the pace is fast early.

Hansen: Beat many of the horses in the field at Churchill Downs last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was rundown in the final furlong in the Blue Grass Stakes.

 

Long shot

Take Charge Indy: You can never count out Calvin Borel in the Derby as he could stay on the rail the entire race and come flying up the inside late.

 

Good luck and may the odds be with you.